tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post211749731998093889..comments2023-07-02T09:06:07.924+01:00Comments on Imagine The Canaries: The Acceptable Fairies ObservationUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post-71120521784846041022015-11-04T03:58:16.106+00:002015-11-04T03:58:16.106+00:00https://evolution-institute.org/article/are-humans...<a href="" rel="nofollow">https://evolution-institute.org/article/are-humans-really-that-smart-a-new-book-says-its-complicated/?source=tvol</a>FluSCIMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07261217761038345120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post-17247822686765544672015-09-06T14:16:34.768+01:002015-09-06T14:16:34.768+01:00When did you discover PT?... His work is pretty am...When did you discover PT?... His work is pretty amazing / wonderful....artiedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13045918375034490655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post-26182496427166548162015-09-05T22:41:20.489+01:002015-09-05T22:41:20.489+01:00http://peterturchin.com/blog/2015/09/04/from-big-g...<a href="http://peterturchin.com/blog/2015/09/04/from-big-gods-to-the-big-brother/" rel="nofollow">http://peterturchin.com/blog/2015/09/04/from-big-gods-to-the-big-brother/</a>FluSCIMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07261217761038345120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post-48577352213910711642015-09-05T22:40:42.123+01:002015-09-05T22:40:42.123+01:00Este comentario ha sido eliminado por el autor.FluSCIMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07261217761038345120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post-72254916176321400542012-06-23T12:41:54.989+01:002012-06-23T12:41:54.989+01:00Ouch, didn't I put "our own"? I thou...Ouch, didn't I put "our own"? I thought I had, and certainly intended to. Will fix in a sec.<br /><br />Good point about the future. Many fairies are about predictions. As far as I know, there are three ways to predict some specific future:<br /><br />1) You know the history of the event, and can speak probabilistically about the future. "This kind of surgery is generally life-saving."<br /><br />2) You know the mechanism involved. "Heads or tails are equally likely given that the mass is evenly distributed inside the coin."<br /><br />In both cases, our prediction is only as good as our model and our data combined.<br /><br />3) You know the guy who's going to do it. "I'm going to change the coin and produce one with two heads."<br /><br />Cheating in more than one sense, but it can work.<br /><br />Humility ... hard to get that into brains* the size of ours!<br /><br />(* Each is 3 pounds, or 1.5 kg, of yucky-looking stuff. I'm quite surprised we can do so much with so little.)FluSCIMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07261217761038345120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9114074638893496871.post-41600582928107592702012-06-22T21:34:47.112+01:002012-06-22T21:34:47.112+01:00Can I suggest changing the last line to...
"...Can I suggest changing the last line to...<br /> "How do we not accept our own and each other's fairies?".... <br /><br />We are all in error and error-prone. But there is an external reality called 'Nature', which is almost absolute and consistent...so far.<br /><br /> We can escape our errors through the humility of accepting the need to always ask 'Nature' what is true? With that humility as a our most important value, we may also be able to ask more fairly..."What is the right course of action at this juncture and from our current level of ignorance?"<br /><br /> No one can tell us what the future will bring, for even in a deterministic Universe, even Nature is mute on that topic. The best that can be done is to ask "What is probable?" and "What is possible?". <br /><br />This must be done cautiously as the 'Black Swan' analysis of Taleb has unveiled how bad probability models have tripped up all of 'finance' and made our bad situation so much worse. <br /><br />Hope this helps!artiedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13045918375034490655noreply@blogger.com